Sunday, October 18, 2009

Can problem turn into solution?

Now that is rather silly heading for a blog focused on value investing. But these days I can't find a stock worth value so writing about markets and economy. Now these days every market seems to be booming and feel good factor is back. People are again talking about investing in a manner if not now, we may not get another chance. Not yet maniacal like in 2008 but air is now filled with expectation. One thing that seems to have changed is liquidity. Central Banks have lowered rates to all time lows and governments are spending without eye on revenues. This again has provide market with cheap money and whether it is going in to productive capital investments -NO. It is all going into speculation. So what is problem. Simple -something cheap is never valued. So cheap money will chase all kind of investments-even those with high risk and low return. This is exactly what happened in earlier collapse of financial markets. Cheap money was invested in poor real estate assets.
Now how a cause of problem be a solution to the same problem. We are living in fantasy world with all central bankers and governments patting one another for having saved us from crisis with their action. So you can cure drug addict by giving it more drugs. Oh! it will only provide some relief from symptoms with higher doses required every time but will it cure drug addiction.
Solution by governments and bankers of providing liquidity by fiscal incentives and loose monetary policies is exactly like giving more drugs to drug addict. It will solve problem for now but it will be bigger once effect of drug tapers off.
Sooner or later we have to take patient off drug and later we do will be more painful.